The problems of ASEAN are shared with the rest of the developing world. Inter-
country income disparity is narrowing, but within each country, inequality is still rising.
Growth in six of the less developed countries remains far faster than the richer four –
Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia and Thailand.
But the emerging six – Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Indonesia, the Philippines and
Vietnam – all need higher levels of spending on infrastructure, education and
healthcare in order to continue growing. Already, four ASEAN members commented
they cannot meet ASEAN 2015 poverty target of 0% poverty headcount ratio. It was
clear that fast growth has dealt substantially with extreme poverty, but at the same
time, the Lamborghinis I saw in Hanoi and Phnom Penh suggest the gap between the
few urban rich and the mass rural poor is not being addressed.
The good news is that the Japanese, Europeans, ADB and the new Chinese-led
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, are more willing to fund the infrastructure.
Indeed, China’s announced infrastructure strategy to build the Silk Road and
Maritime Silk Road means that basic ports, rails and telecommunication funding and
technology will become readily available to ASEAN members.
Furthermore, the fall in oil prices has meant that ASEAN members will enjoy cheaper
energy and also enable Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand to remove their energy
subsidy policies, which in the last few years took up more than 30% of total
government budget or 4% of GDP. The removal of these subsidies frees up funds for
fiscal expenditure on infrastructure and dealing with social inequality.
However, traveling through the Indochina countryside also revealed to me the
importance of water in the whole ecology of the region. Almost all the water in the
region comes from the monsoon rains and the rivers that flow from the Himalayas
through Yunnan in China. The Mekong River flows for over 4,800 km through six
countries, and provides water and transport for over 80 million people.
Deforestation, global warming and changing weather patterns all threaten the fertile
rice-growing areas from Myanmar to Vietnam, which depend on water availability.
The region produces 12% of global rice production. History showed that droughts
and the associated malaria and water-based diseases all accelerated the fall of the
Khmer empire, the builders of the magnificent temples in Angkor. According to
Vietnam authorities, drought, salination and rising sea levels due to global warming
may erode 40% of the Mekong Delta in the next century.
Despite these challenges, I disagree with Kaplan that territorial disputes in the South
China over water and resources will be the end of a stable Pacific. First, there are
just too many trigger points in the Balkans and Middle East before the East Pacific
goes into armed conflict. Second, the region has too much to lose from rising trade
and economic integration, not just within the region, but also with the US and Europe.
Fourthly, the powers that surround ASEAN are all nuclear powers and all great
powers understand that the nuclear option can start with small skirmishes with total
mutual destruction if not managed.
Having survived and thrived after nearly 50 years of living and working together, one
has to trust the innate wisdom of ASEAN leaders who have the common sense,
pragmatism and moderation to understand that the regional and global future rests on
clear-sighted balance of power, opportunities and risks.
A cauldron needs an outside fire to be stoked. So far, ASEAN leaders have not lit
their own cauldrons. Global warming already threatens to boil the world. We all have
enough to do without boiling ourselves in our own cauldron.
The founding fathers of ASEAN had the foresight and overcame their differences to
ensure continued stability and prosperity of the region. One only hopes that outside
powers have the wisdom and restraint to keep ASEAN growing in peace for the next
50 years.
Andrew Sheng is writing on global issues from Asian perspectives.
A version of this article appeared in The Star Online, 28 February 2015
|
|
